Tag Archives: unemployment

What January Effect?

The markets experienced a modest 6 day rally[1] to begin 2010 in what many are calling a continuation of the current up trend. Although the markets have rallied nicely from the November lows and finally broke out above December’s resistance levels, this rally is lacking significant substance. Market Fallacy has been bearish for some time now. While not all data has conclusively supported this rally, the important indicators continue to suggest a future decline. Sadly, the brilliant talking heads on CNBC are calling for a “bigger event” to act as a catalyst for this market. Unemployment (although a lagging indicator) has been 10% for two consecutive months[2], today’s retail sales numbers[3] were much worse than expected and Alcoa severely missed analyst expectations[4]. If this any indication on how earnings season might go: here is the BIGGER EVENT.

SPX Last 9 Months

[1] Approximately 2.86%
[2] November Consensus 10.2% vs. Actual 10.0%, December Consensus 10.1% vs. Actual 10.0%
[3]  Consensus 0.4% vs. Actual -0.3%
[4]  Analysts Estimate 0.6 vs. Whisper Number 0.07 vs. Actual Earnings of 0.01