I know the title says Dow 10K and this is a picture of the SPX, synonymous with the S&P 500, but they track each other close enough to make the point. In addition, the price weighted nature of the Dow, versus the market capitalization weighted nature of the SPX causes some problems in forecasting. Nevertheless, the market bias is higher.
I have use Fibonacci retracements to show target levels as well as trend lines that suggest a head and shoulder reversal patter, also known as a Kilroy Bottom. According to the retracement levels, closing above 849.32 on the SPX is bullish and suggests the index will trade higher, more specifically to its next resistance level: 962.25. In my newsletters on www.marketfallacy.com, I called the possibility of a bottom on March 10th just shortly after the intraday lows of 667 on the SPX occurred on March 6th. This link is to the March 10th newsletter http://marketfallacy.com/newsletter/files/Market_Fallacy_%7C_3-10-09_2009-03-11.html. In the same newsletter I also suggested it was very likely the SPX would trade at or near 815 and the DJIAat or near 7900. In the weekend edition on March 15th, http://marketfallacy.com/newsletter/files/Market_Fallacy_%7C_3-15-09_2009-03-15.html, I called the bottom. With the SPX closing at 806.12 on March 24th, I increased my target on the SPX to 875, http://marketfallacy.com/newsletter/files/Market_Fallacy_%7C_3-24-09_%7C_Dont_Fight_the_Fed_2009-03-24.html. On the 2nd of April, http://marketfallacy.com/newsletter/files/Market_Fallacy_%7C_4-2-09_%7C_Cramer_Calls_Bottom_2009-04-02.html, I increased my targets once again. On the 2nd, the SPX closed at 834.38 and the DJIA7978.08. Please do not misunderstand me, I by no means am patting myself on the back for these calls, I simply wanted to post reference points to support why I changed my targets.
In addition, the purpose of bringing up the forecast is to explain what I was seeing when I made these predictions. In another article I’ll explain how I predicted that the DJIA would trade in the 6000’s all the way back in August of 2008 (DJIAwas trading in the mid 11000’s). In early March, I saw the current Kilroy Bottom forming. After drawing a neckline at almost 875, I realized if the trend holds, the SPXwould have to trade above 1000. I know the chart shows a neckline at around 950, but the interpretation of the charts are subjective. On a side note, I believe that if you are truly gifted at the stock market, you should be able to take the same information, the same charts, and tell one person why they should buy, then walk into the next room and tell another person why they should sell. The difference is probability or likelihood that the current trends or information will be realized.
Most bears are calling for a significant retracement. Some bulls are even secretly hoping for a slight pullback in fear that the markets cannot sustain the current up-trend. Let me first begin by saying, I was one of the more bearish traders in the Fall of 2008. Until recently, I thought I was watching the collapse of the greatest empire ever, the United States. However, the last month has given me much hope. America is the land of opportunity, and the current market environment is a huge opportunity. Because of these opportunities Americans have always overcome adversity, whether it’s the bombing of Pearl Harbor, September 11, 2001 World Trade terrorist attack, natural disasters such as fires in California or Hurricanes hitting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana, Americans have always shown perseverance. Unfortunately, in order for there to be good opportunities there have to be bad ones. During the past 8 months talking to different investors, I have continually reminded them that if the want the coin they have to be willing to have both sides, heads and tails. This translates to: If you want economic boom, you have to have economic recession. It’s completely natural, and in fact a very good thing. Through economic recessions, the economy gets rid of the companies that should not be, in order to prepare itself for the ensuing expansion.
I made this reference to the show that I have not always been as bullish as I am currently for two reasons. The first reason is hopefully to establish some credibility and the second, very similar to the first, is so that I could show that I change as the facts change. Until recently, there has been a lot of uncertainty in the market. Generally, markets do not like uncertainty, and as a result volatility increased. During the increased period of volatility, negative news compounded this uncertainty and exacerbated it. This resulted in psychology driving the markets rather than facts. Fear and lack of trust produced the bankruptcy at Lehman Brothers. Yes they were probably insolvent as well, but once there is a run on a bank, it almost always goes under. The bears that are left are hoping for results of the stress test or a bankruptcy announcement from General Motors to reverse this market. I seriously see these events as very positive. It’s about expectations. We all know that GM is struggling, it won’t surprise anyone if they file for bankruptcy. I think the market might actually rally on this information as there will be less uncertainty. Additionally, results of the stress test will reveal which banks can survive andwhich will fail. Again, uncertainty will exit the markets because the bad banks will fail while the good banks have the backing of the United States Government. I know that this post is under the technical analysis tab, I’m getting to its technical relevance. But first I need to say one more thing about the banks. Some people have suggested that banks raising additional capital is bearish. While I’d agree that this without a doubt means the need more capital, obviously because they wouldn’t raise capital if they didn’t need it, but do not agree that it is bearish. The fact that Goldman Sachs was able to raise $5 billion this week without the backing of the government is huge. It means that once again people are trusting the banks to do what they do.
Now for the technical relevance of all this fundamental information. I think the markets will continue higher to approximately SPX 1000 before any significant retracement occurs. At that time I am going to reduce the size of all my long positions, but I am not going to short the market. My reference earlier to changing when the facts change will be reiterated here. Unfortunately, economists such as Nouriel Roubini are going to all the credibility they have established over the last year quickly. Nouriel Roubini, also known as Dr. Doom, is a professor of economic at Stern school of business at New York University. He predicted the real estate bubble in September of 2006, and the ensuing sub-prime crisis in September 2008. Many people viewed him as very pessimistic, just as they did to me when I told people the DJIA was headed to the mid 6000’s. Nevertheless, he received much credibility and respect for his predictions. Sadly, he thinks the economy has not bottomed, and is on the verge of losing all the credibility he gained in the last two years.
Having said this, as the SPX approaches 1000, I expect a significant retracement in the range of 20-25%. This would move the SPX back down to around 800, still approximately 20% off the March 6th lows. Remember if the SPX does get to 1000, it will have rallied approximately 50% off the bottom with virtually no down movement. Markets do not move in straight lines, although this might suggest otherwise. According to Elliot Wave Theory (EWT), we have ended the down-wave and are now in an up-wave. This change in trend is due to the violation of rule one of the three consistent rules of EWT: 1) wave 4 cannot enter wave 1’s territory 2) wave 3 is never the shortest impulse wave 3) wave 2 never exceeds the start of wave 1.
If the markets continue to follow technical analysis, a continuation of the up-trend to approximately SPX 1000 followed by a 20-25% retracement are supported by the forming of the Kilroy Bottom, Fibonacci retracements, EWT and even fundamental analysis. All of the technical analysis just covered have very similar targets, with a small margin for error. Regardless, it has been very accurate and profitable for me since suggesting the possibility of a bottom in early March.