Volatile Outlook

Early market volatility suggests uncertainty surrounding the Stress Test results. Look for the possible release of this information tomorrow to be a major upside catalysts. For the most part, the results should be within expectations, but any negative surprises will cause an equity specific sell off. By the same token, any positive surprise will provide more momentum for the current rally, as it is being led by the finanials. I expect to see a continuation of the intraday volatility, but do not expect a significant breakout either way. If there is a breakout it will be foreshadowed by the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000. If the markets bounce back to near even, and the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 lead the rally positive, the rally will have substance. If this happens look for a substantial move higher, particularly if it happens during the late day.

Existing home sales fell more than expected last month, but this should come as no surprise. I find this to be a huge positive in regards to forming a bottom, even though the markets disagree. If the existing home sales increased a second month in a row, I’d be concerned with the results. For this to be the “worst real estate decline since the Great Depression,” bouncing back on consecutive months should warrant concern. This reconfirms that the real estate markets have bottomed. Although, next month’s existing home sales need to be better than March, they do not necessarily need to be positive like February. It should also be noted that while real estate prices have declined nationally, a majority of residential real estate is not losing significant value. The areas losing the most are the areas that had the highest growth potential. In regards to academia, higher growth potential comes with higher risk, or higher risk is compensated with higher growth opportunity. The areas hit the hardest are areas where there was extreme speculation, and real estate was being purchased, with debt, and with the intent to make a quick profit.

Since the beginning of this post, the markets have bounced a little. I expect a progressive increase throughout the remainder of the trading session, with a late day rally of about 1%. The markets are subconsciously thinking about the consecutive weekly gain streak on the line. The streak, currently at six weeks, has been the largest percentage gain streak since the Great Depression. SPX 832 is the current support level to consider. Closing below this support level implies further declines.

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