The uptrend is not over! The markets are adjusting perfectly for the next move higher. In the chart, the SPX is trading in an upward trending channel. The downside resistance in the channel is SPX 820 in a worse case scenario today. It is very likely we will close much above this as closing at 820 would be almost a 6% slide. The horizontal line on this chart illustrates former resistance becoming support. If the SPX retests 820, it will make a double bottom. Not on this chart, Fibonacci retracement levels for 3 month time frame are: 875 and the March lows of 667. It’s no coincidence the SPX retraced after touching 875, this is very healthy. If Fibonacci retracement lines are drawn on this chart, in this time frame, the next support level is at SPX 832. As a result, I am not surprised that currently we are trading at 836. I do not expect the day to get much worse. In the recent uptrend, down days have been violent and on low volume, and today is no different. There has not been more than two consecutive down days since the March lows. Although it is possible for us to be down again tomorrow, I do not expect this, unless there is a negative earnings surprise.
Unfortunately, people forget quickly and have unreasonable expectations. Many bears are coming out of the woodwork, saying “I told you the markets were due.” They proceed to suggest that now the bulls are “bottom fishing.” I find this very ironic since most of the bears have been top fishing for the last six weeks. This time, the bears who went short on Friday, got lucky. There is no real catalyst for today’s downward price pressure other than the fact that markets do not move in a straight line. It is terribly wrong to try to short this rally. Eight months ago I traded by the saying “don’t be caught wrong long.” All this simply means is that if I’m going to be wrong, I might as well be wrong short. Since I was fairly certain the economy was getting worse, this was a safer bet. Now the economy is improving, and the saying has switched. Being wrong short is a recipe for disaster. It’s clear the government will do whatever it has to for the banks to succeed. Do not try to get cute and attempt to time this perfectly. If you are uncomfortable with today’s down move, close your long positions, but do not try to short this. I will almost guarantee, all else equal, the market closes on Friday higher than it closes today.